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Inflation went down and rate hike odds just tripled. June CPI printed 3.5%, down from 4.2%. In the week after, market-implied odds of a hike this Wednesday roughly tripled to ~30%. Traders on Kalshi prediction markets are rate hike odds near 25%, nearly 5x what the odds were just last week. Citadel Securities reportedly argues markets underestimate how hawkish this Fed has turned. Why could this be the case? Oil up ~20% this month, AI infrastructure spend is becoming a structural inflation drive
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