In the first trading day after Ukraine ceased the flow of Russian gas and oil, benchmark natural gas prices in Europe surged 4%.

Austria has insisted it is well prepared for the stoppage, but Slovakia has threatened to cut electricity supplies to neighboring Ukraine.

Since January 1, when the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine stopped, in Austria and Slovakia has sharply increased gas extraction from storage facilities, and Austria and the Czech Republic have resumed fuel imports through Germany.

The ongoing conflict has highlighted the importance of diversifying gas supplies to build resilience against geopolitical risks.

The Freedom Party and its leader, Herbert Kickl, have steadily built support by demonizing immigrants, while entering Austria’s political mainstream.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office on January 20 having criticized continued U.S. military aid for Ukraine's fight against Russia. This may shift the onus on support for Kyiv to fall on other allies, particularly in Europe, where a changing political leadership since his election could complicate matters.

Austria’s Freedom Party, which is starting talks to lead the government, opposes sanctions on Russia and the EU’s support for Ukraine.

Austria should not face supply disruption as it has prepared for the switch from eastern supplies of natural gas to western alternatives after Ukraine's contract with Gazprom expires on Tuesday, Austria's energy regulator E-Control said.

Ukraine’s decision to end the gas transit deal with Russian energy giant Gazprom has been hailed by President Volodymyr Zelensky as one of Moscow’s biggest defeats. Today, the transit of Russian gas is zero.

Even so, according to polls, the FPÖ will do still better if snap elections are held. Kronen Zeitung, Austria’s largest-circulation tabloid, published a poll on January 5th that put the FPÖ at 37% of the vote, which would give them around 40% of the seats in parliament. That should focus the minds of the ÖVP ’s negotiators. ■

With transit routes through Ukraine for Russian gas cut off, a few EU countries now need to rethink their gas supply. For others – including Germany and Switzerland – the impact will be minimal.