The probability of a 30% U.S. stock market drop in the next year is estimated at 8%, based on options market-derived methodology. Survey and pundit-based crash probabilities are notably higher, but ...

Discover how probability distribution methods can help predict stock market returns and improve investment decisions. Learn ...

Reader estimates put the average probability of a 30% stock market crash in the next year at 30.5%, with a median of 25%. After engaging with the article's analysis, respondents lowered their average ...

One of the key difficulties of analyzing highly kinetic enterprises like IonQ Inc (NYSE: IONQ) is that their valuations incur reflexivity. A concept popularized by George Soros, reflexivity is a ...