Anything above 200,000, and the S&P 500 Index is seen dropping about 1%, according to Goldman Sachs. A JPMorgan Chase & Co. trading desk note sees the gauge as poised to potentially fall by 0.5% to 1% if the print is above 220,000.

The U.S. stock market just had another fantastic year. The broad-based S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) returned 23%, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) advanced 13%, and the technology-focused Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) surged 29% in 2024.

Good news for the U.S. economy is back to being bad for Wall Street as the S&P 500, Dow Jones industrial average and Nasdaq all post losses.

Rising technology stocks helped U.S. indexes recover more of their holiday-season slide that bridged the new year.

In other words, history says the Nasdaq could advance 16% in 2025, but most Wall Street analysts see even more upside in Nvidia ( NVDA -0.02%) and Lam Research ( LRCX -0.62%), two companies that reset their soaring share prices by completing 10-for-1 stock splits in 2024.